Despite the braying, the posturing, and the strong arm tactics, Mr. Trump failed to pull the Bill over the line in the House. Now, I don’t want to belabor the point, but Mr. Trump’s party is in complete control of the Legislative process. Now, during the Obama years, the GOP controlled House passed repeal bills over 30 times!, and now, when they have the majority, the opportunity, and the capital to do it… they fall apart.
It is not like we couldn’t see this coming.
Trump’s victory back in November is starting to look more like a Pyrrhic Victory for the GOP after all. Speaker Ryan could be politically wounded to the point of stepping down as Speaker. Trump heads into the weekend angry and with nothing but negative media coverage, so suspect some twitter bombs over the weekend. The party is leaderless, they can’t whip a repeal vote on their signature issue for FOUR elections now. They look like amateurs, and don’t be fooled, the GOP has been Majority in the House for 6 years, they are not new to this game.
Now Trump wants to move on and let the ACA “Explode.” He is blaming the Democrats for the loss today, which is textbook to the point of parody. Donald, you had one job. Get 219 votes from 240 Republicans, and you failed. He heads into the weekend angry, humiliated, and being called a loser… I suspect there will be drama from the White House at some point. Then we will see what happens with the GOP. Now that the both right and left wings of the Party know they can sink Ryan’s and Trump’s agenda, the new deadlock may just be the Republicans with themselves.
Of course if they worked with the Democrats, they could pass a lot of stuff… if only.
But I digress.
The problem about letting the ACA “explode” as Trump says is that everyone knows that you are doing it, and they are not going to blame Obama for it failing, they will blame Trump for the failure, since he is so spitefully trying to destroy it so openly. Trump is in a no-win situation now, his first 100 days will go down as one of the worst ever for a modern president. He looks defeatable on all of his legislative goals. He looks weak, and each week he is slowly being cut do death by Russian leaks. Pretty soon, he may be counting down the end of his days as President as gleefully as many Democrats do.
The political fallout for this is going to be interesting. With Trump’s approval rating falling, it is a question how effective he can be to push congresspeople around. Further, there are many in the GOP who want to repeal the ACA, so how to do explain that you failed when you have all the cards? The Democrats are emboldened and they are already starting on 2018. (which is good for them, they have almost always sucked in the midterms… 2006 not withstanding) . Of course, Trump’s twitter finger will likely upend something this weekend, so it may be useless to speculate.
If I were the Democrats, I would float a bill out there to fix the ACA, and try and push it forward. It would stand as their campaign platform for 2018, and the GOP will have to put up their own version, (and since they are in majority) try and outdo them before the election. However, I suspect they will do the tried and truth method of not getting in the way of your opponent when he is fucking up.
What a day in politics. It is a literal circus.