It looks like we are going to soon have the answer of who will bend first, The President or The Courts. Tonight, the 9th Circuit of Appeals have denied the Trump Administration’s request to Say the order to halt the Executive Order.
Yes, that is the simplest I can make it.
Basically, when the Travel Ban Executive went live, several groups sued the Administration to stop the EO from executing. One Judge granted a halt to the Execution of the EO for the purpose of the lawsuit. The Trump Administration then said “Courts, we want you to stay that order, or prevent it from being enacted.”
The 9th just denied them that request.
The first major test to whether Mr. Trump’s Presidency survives its infancy will be here. The 9th has denied the request, and one could argue that it could be appealed the Supreme Court. If they punt on it, the 9th Decision stands and Mr. Trump will be told “No” and he will not be able to do what he wants. If they take it, then it will come down to the 8 Judges on the court. And further!Mr. Trump’s Supreme Court Justice Nominee will be asked this during confirmation, politicizing the thing even more.
If Roberts and the Supreme Court stands down to Mr. Trump, it will be seen as a major defeat for the opposition. Trump will continue to exert power as if no one can stop him, as person after institution has let him. The Courts will lose a lot of its legitimacy in the eyes of many. Worse would be a 4-4 split, the Travel Ban would be stopped (which is good), but it would be at the cost of the Supreme Court’s reputation.
If they tell him no, that his Executive Order is unconstitutional, or they let the 9th Districts decision stand… then we will see what happens when Mr. Trump is confronted with defeat. When he is told “NO,” and there isn’t anything he can do about it. Frankly, I suspect it is when he will be most dangerous, and I suspect that he may well cross a line, which could turn the many in the GOP against him.
Of course he may bully his way and shout down the Supreme Court. We will see, he has so far been able to keep down any consistent dissent in the GOP, and many will not go against the President so early.
I just can’t see Mr. Trump not going to Twitter or trying something if he is defeated.